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Can we abundant Guinea?
By: Musa V. Sheriff 06 January, 2010 There are many discussions on the situation unfolding in Guinea. This explains that the international community is concerned about Guinea and its social setting. But some communist like-minded people have seen Moussa Dadis and his associates as good way out. It makes sense if we have two opposing forces discussing the same thing, which I called critical deliberation. Now let’s look at it critically from the broad context, and then analyze it from both the political and military perspectives. We will use history as an ultimate guide in this piece. History is the witness of the time. History is an important tool that helps us correct the present and future. Throughout history, military coups in West Africa have been a failure. It has created more harm than good. Most often it generates into conflict. Military rule or bad governance further deepens the ethnic division. Africa is the most ethnic fragmented continent. For example Ghana, we will use Ghana as a case study. This will explain why the high expectations of Ghana success in the early 1960s became a nightmare; it had 50 years of stagnation. In Ghana, the cocoa farmers are from the Ashanti group. When Nkrumah came to power he froze the cocoa price. Why? Because he was from a different ethnic group, by mid 1960s the famers were receiving 6% of the world cocoa price. This led to high black market premium, inflation and even a coup, and coup after coup. This made Ghana to be one of the poorest in sub Saharan Africa. Other examples will be Liberia, Cote d’ivoire, Nigeria and many more, the list is long. Have you learned from history? That, you have to answer… Back to Guinea, the political situation has moved from drama to trauma. Ethnic division within the military is deepening at a high rate. Ordinary Guineans cannot afford to get food on their tables. Coercive diplomacy is slowly failing. The military and their associates are all irresponsible, mendacious and dishonest. Does the international community need to stand aloof and wait for them? If you have learned from history, then remind yourself of Rwanda, or Kosovo or Cambodia. What were the consequences in those areas? Many schools in International Relation will argue that war is inevitable. The liberal will say yes it is inevitable, but it could be preventable. I am sure you are a liberal, if so then, the need to prevent Guinea from degenerating into conflict is very important. I am not going to tell you which school of thought I belong. You may guess it. Since war is inevitable, but preventable why can’t we do that now? There has been some news that the Junta is preparing to response to international intervention. I will give you some empirical reasons why the Guinean Military will succumb or surrender to the International forces: The military is completely divided. The military is very weak after three peace keeping missions. Large percentage of the military are used to big time city lives, that is to say they cannot afford to leave family or sweet to defense any illegitimate status quos. They are used to getting free money through robbery or burglary, possessing expansive cell-phones, and driving good cars. Many studies have shown that if one has lot of social commitments, the likelihood of looking for trouble is less. For example, a degree holder earning 6000$ per month and has a decent job. Can he afford to go and steal in a grocery store? And maybe end up in jail. I am not going to answer this for you. But your answer will make sense. Also I am not comparing those irresponsible and erratic junta members to a degree holder, maybe only to those who use their education to kill growth and undermine political stability. I am only trying to support my argument with some sociological findings. Most Guinean military personnel are found in this case. Base on this evidence, I will argue that any intervention force in Guinea now will succeed, and it will also prevent large scale chaos in the sub region of West Africa. Let’s make sense of it from the political perspective. Politic is a complex and complicated game. Most often it becomes very emotional, nasty and noisy. That’s why military are kept away from it. Because when political discussion or debate gets noisy and nasty, we shot intellectual bullets, not the military ones. Gun is very dangerous in politics; therefore it should be kept far away. If not, then we will see lot of what Toumba Diakite did to Moussa Dadis in Guinea. Politics is above the knowledge of military; it is the remote control that controls all other institutions within the nation. For example, education, police, military and economy, if you have the opposite then that nation is on the verge of failure. Base on these facts, I will argue that intervention forces are needed in Guinea now. Alas, I will conclude with the message, and quotation. It seems Guinea political situation is moving from drama to trauma. I wish Musa Dadis and other so-called intellectual Guineans had read this quotation.
“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong panaceas” Groucho Marx
Musa V. Sheriff VANCOUVER, BC
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