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GUINEA'S POST ELECTIONS UNREST
THREATENS PEACE IN LIBERIA By: Tamba D. Aghailas Courtesy: Bush Chicken website 09 August, 2010  Liberia
and Guinea share may common characteristics: they have similar cultures,
ethnic groups who speak the same dialects (Kissi, Kpelleh, Lorma, and
Mano), and a porous border where anything can be smuggled across border
lines. Unlike Liberia, Guinea has not experienced a full-blown civil
crisis. Rather it has served as a hub for destabilization of neighboring
countries, including Liberia and Sierra Leone. In the case of the Republic of Guinea: A longtime army colonel, Lansana Conté took power in a bloodless coup d’état after the death of the charismatic pro independence campaigner and first president, Ahmed Sekou Touré. Conté seized power in April of 1984, ousting the then transitional government of Lansana Beavogui, and suspended the constitution. “L’homme fort de l’armée,” (the army’s strongman) as he is still known in Guinea, metamorphosed from an army colonel to a general to a civilian president, through a deceptive and phony electoral process. Conté ruled Guinea with an iron fist until his reign came tumbling down after he died abroad following a protracted illness. Since his death, the country has been at a crossed road: just like his predecessor, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara seized power hours after the announcement of Conté’s death. The military junta quickly gained popularity with the local people who have long yearned for a functioning democracy and Captain Camara gained notoriety for his quirkiness - display of some eccentric behavior. For example, he ridiculed soldiers who behaved badly on his own reality television show dubbed, “the Dadis Show.” With a year in power (December 2008 – December 2009), Captain Camara was widely blamed by the international world after more than 100 pro-democracy demonstrators were killed by Guinean troops. In December 2009, a bodyguard shot Captain Camara in the head in an attempted assignation. Camara has since been forced into a so-called “self-imposed” exile his deputy, General Sekouba Konaté is in charge of transitioning the country to civilian rule. Ethnicity and Elections The first round of Guinea’s presidential elections recently took place on June 27 and the two leading candidates, veteran opposition leader Alpha Condé and former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo are set for a runoff. The date is yet to be agreed upon as both sides have accused the Elections Commission of incompetence and partiality. These candidates represent the two largest ethnic groups in Guinea – the Peuhl (Fulas or Fulani) and the Malinké (Mandingo). The Fulani tribal group is estimated at 40%, while the Malinké ethnic group is estimated at 30% of Guinea’s 10 million inhabitants. These two groups have been rivals in this mineral-rich country since it gained independence from France on October 2, 1958. The nation’s first President, Ahmed Sekou Touré, a Malinké, was accused of killing his opponents; especially promising Fula leaders, who he felt threatened his rule. The ranks of the military and the police under Touré were pacified of well-connected Fula. Touré’s autocratic rule sent herds of Guineans into exile in neighboring countries and he failed miserably in bringing democracy to Guinea. Alpha Condé hails from the dominant Malinké (Mandingo or Madinka) ethnic group, whose quest for state power is well felt in the sub-region: their Mandingo relatives of Cote d’Ivoire waged a deadly civil war in that country after they were denied the right to national identify and the right to vote. In neighboring Liberia, the Mandingo group formed a major warring faction (ULIMO-K) and formed alliances with LURD, a group that eventually forced Charles Taylor to resign the presidency of Liberia. Taylor started that nation’s civil war that left more than a quarter million dead. In Sierra Leona, after former President Tejan Kabbah, an ethnic Mandinka, was driven out of power by a rebel unit of the army (AFRC), he sought the help of late President Conté in neighboring Guinea. He was eventually restored to power with help from the British. Today, the Mandingos are major players in the sociopolitical corridors of power in these countries. Cellou Diallo’s Fula ethnic group has evolved from a nomadic lifestyle over the past half a century to a powerhouse of business people hawking everything from cheap Chinese brand knockoffs on the streets of Medina, Conakry to running their own mega-million dollar enterprises in Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone and the United States. The Fula have become savvy entrepreneurs and have since used their wealth to educate themselves in their strife to gain state power in Guinea, where they call home. Mr. Diallo presents that long held dream for the Fula people and they are willing and ready to pull their resources (financial and human) in making sure that their candidate emerges victorious. They will stop at nothing and this is worrisome. Guinea is at a crossroad One the one hand, if the country were to pull a successful and peaceful second round of voting, whereby one candidate would concede defeat, it would give its 10 million people a new found hope in the good tenets of democracy craved by many African countries. The people, after years of enduring misrule and corruption, could finally benefit from the nation’s fortunes and vast reserves of bauxite, iron ore, timber, gold and diamonds. On the other hand, Guinea is at a brink of a nasty and prolong civil crisis that has the propensity to pull its neighbors into such a mess. Human rights groups and donors fear that any civil unrest in Guinea has the propensity to destabilize neighbors, especially Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Cote d’Ivoire, countries with decade-long histories of bloody civil wars. From all confirmed reports and from speaking with Guineans at home and abroad, neither candidate seems willing to comprise, not this time. Both men have indicated that they will win the presidency in Guinea. Alpha Condé has hinted that he may not be able to stop his militants were he to be cheated. Murky alliances have begun to form and the military junta has warned trouble makers of dire consequences. This is a sign of things to come: ethnic strife and military tyranny could lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. Such a crisis could provide disastrous for Guinea’s young democracy. During the massive strikes of 2007 that paralyzed the country for many weeks, there were no accurate reports as to the plight of the remaining Liberian, Sierra Leonean and Ivorian refugees still living in various parts of Guinea. Food and other basic commodities are always in shortage during periods of instability. The plight of these forgotten refugees could be worsening and may lead to a renewed humanitarian crisis. Solution The goal of any good democratic process is to give the masses a voice to choose whoever they want as their leader and to make sure that the rule of law, justice, and the peace are maintained. Guineans may not be ready for the shock that they are about to experience. Guinea’s answer to a peaceful democratic country may not lie in the conduct of second round presidential elections. The timing is not right. If we are to learn from the experiences of Kenya, Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire, the international community, led by the African Union, should interceded right away and invite all stakeholders in Guinea, especially the political parties, the powerful unions, the military, and women groups to devise a comprise between Cellou Diallo and Alpha Condé. Such a comprise will not only save Guinea millions of dollars that would have gone to waste after a failed second round of voting, but it will save thousands of lives and save Guinea and its neighbors the eternal voyage to anarchy. Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau and Mali should take heed and engage their partner. A hint to the wise is quite sufficient. Let’s us pray for a miracle. |
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